Economics & Finance
June Wed 20, 2012
Right after saving the Spanish banking system, Europe was faced with another decisive event for their future: the Greek elections, inexorably connected with the question of whether or not Greece remains in the European monetary union. “Every weekend”, says Tobias Bayer, correspondent for the Financial Times Deutschland, “something else happens. The crisis in Europe is like a horror movie that never ends. It is like arriving at ‘Halloween - Part 10’”.Are the results of the Greek elections worrying? The Greek economy is small. Its exit from the euro (the famous "Grexit") should be manageable. I believe that the banks and businesses are prepared for this scenario. However, it would be damaging for the European community. The country is, in fact, the cradle of democracy and an important pillar for European identity. I hope that this election (as it seems from the results) will not lead to the return of the drachma.Before this vote, there was a bailout of the Spanish banking system: an operation that was seen as a change in tactics for Germany. In Berlin is really changing anything? In Italy and other European countries people think that Germany is blocking everything. This is not true. The Germans said yes to the EFSF/ESM bailout fund, and the Bundesbank accepts higher inflation. These are not small steps. According to a recent survey, 58% of Germans would be willing to adopt a more decisive European integration. Berlin will not let Europe collapse, I am sure.After Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, the next country that is at risk is Italy. What do you think? I believe in the theory of the “next in line”. The financial market is not rational. First, remember that Italy is different from Spain. The industrial base is strong, and the country is near a primary budget surplus. In addition, the banks, except Monte dei Paschi di Siena, are solid and the capital ratios are stronger in Italy than in Germany. However, Italy is in danger of running up against the wrong bond placement. The liquidity of its bonds is what is threatened. And if a placement were to fail, the country would be in great danger.Recently, Angela Merkel said that Europe must accelerate its steps towards a political union, as well as a financial one. She also offered a glimpse of the idea of ??a Europe with “two speeds”. What does this mean?
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