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GEOFINANCE/ How will China get down from the “tiger” of the crisis?

June Thu 07, 2012

(Infophoto)  (Infophoto)

"Riding the Tiger" is a Chinese expression that has inspired more than one Western thinker. For example, it is the title of some meditations that the philosopher Julius Evola entrusted to the press in 1961. The whole proverb states: "qi hu nan xia" for those who ride the tiger, it is difficult to dismount.

Recently, the metaphor of the tiger reappeared in the headlines when Peter Coy, an analyst at Bloomberg, used this and other images at the opening of an investigation of the crisis in China because, despite the fact that official sources speak of "a slowing of growth" and "sustainable growth", there is a real crisis, and the difficulty for the Chinese leadership is that, after riding the boom of the Dragon for decades, now they have to get down.

In order for it to be permissible to speak of a crisis, a small number, the inflation data published a few weeks ago and judged by many independent observers to be dependable, must be analyzed. In late April, the consumer price index stood still at 3.4% per year, for the first time in line with the government objective to keep inflation below the ceiling of 4%. However, none in Beijing celebrated. Instead, one would say that the rigor policies cast Greek-like scenarios over the Chinese economy.

The number of suicides among entrepreneurs in the city of Wenzhou reached levels that drove the Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao to check-up on the situation in an official capacity. From that time, the Prime Minister announced a plan to facilitate lending to businesses and boost local economic growth. How? New funding dedicated exclusively to SMEs and individuals licensed to trade unlisted stocks.

The most interesting part of the plan, however, comes in the reasons behind the opening. Returning to an analysis published by the Wenzhou headquarters of the Chinese central bank, the program declares that, in a context of global crisis, neither the exportation to Europe, nor the domestic demand can support the enormous local production, and, according to an analysis of China Merchants Securities, "What we see in Wenzhou is not an isolated case". News published last week by China's central bank confirmed this statement. The medium-term industrial investment fell by 46% per year, while the number of loans rose by one third since the beginning of 2012.



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