TURKEY/ Earthquake: the number of deaths might be less than estimated

The earthquake that hit Turkey yesterday, 19 km north-east of the city of Van, bordering Iran, was extremely violent. It took place at 13:41 local time, and was a magnitude 6.6 according to the Kandilli Observatory of Istanbul, and 7.2, instead, according to the Geological Institute. Its hypocenter was 7.2 km below ground, which is relatively "high", that is, close to the surface. However, on the immense drama that happened in a few moments, Ozgehan Senyuva, Professor of International Relations at the Middle East Technical University in Ankara, contacted by ilSussidiario.net, explains that "the tragedy could have been of immense proportions. But a series of circumstances made it so that, despite the fact that the earthquake was of devastating intensity, the damage was, all in all, limited".

In any case, people continue to dig through the rubble. The coming of the night is making the operation more difficult. There are between 500 and a thousand dead, while the survivors are prey to panic. "In the area, there is also a large university with 10 thousand students. Unfortunately, one of the buildings that collapsed was a student dorm," explains Senyuva. "Nevertheless – he continues - the greatest disaster took place in a small town near Van, Ercis. News from there is still coming unevenly”. The professor explains that things could have gone much worse. "The phone lines were not cut off, and phones are still working, as well as the airport, to which military aircraft delivered food and medicine. In addition, the Red Crescent [equivalent of the Red Cross], the many international organizations working here, the army and the volunteers are doing their jobs well".

The emergency, therefore, is being managed effectively. "The meals have already been distributed and the tents have been set up." On the number of dead, Senyuva is not convinced that the numbers reported in the media are accurate. "It is said that there were a thousand. Personally, I talked to a reporter for the local newspaper of Van, who told me that the death toll could be reduced to 100-150. Currently, however, there are still no official estimates." Whatever the actual number is, Senyuva comments that it still could have been much higher: "We were, after all, fortunate that it took place on a Sunday, during the day. Offices and schools were closed, and - given the nice weather - many families were outside the city for a picnic".

On the controversy that the mayor of Van raised on the failure to comply with seismic safety rules, Senyuva has a different opinion: “Van is a city that, in recent times, has benefited from some development through tourism. In the center of the city, in fact, many buildings have been built recently. It is no coincidence that an earthquake of such magnitude destroyed only dozens of homes”. The emergency is being managed properly. But time is running out. "Unfortunately - he concluded - bad weather, and snow, is expected on Wednesday, so we have to hurry."