Politics & Society
August Fri 24, 2012
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In a few weeks we could wake up one morning and read in the newspapers that the bases where Iran is preparing its atomic bomb were bombed. It could it be that the bombing was carried out by the Israeli army alone, or perhaps along with the Americans. We would then read about reprisals, missile attacks by Iran on Israeli cities, attempts to block the Strait of Hormuz, between the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean through which a third of the world oil production passes, and terrorist attacks on the Israeli territory and maybe even the rest the world by Hamas and Hezbollah. It would be a new war, or a new act in the infinite Middle Eastern war that would make the current conflicts continue and grow, like the ones in Syria and Yemen, where at least to a certain extent the parties involved are the same as those clashing on the Iranian nuclear issue: on the one side the U.S., Britain, and Saudi Arabia, and on the other Iran and its satellites (Syria, Hezbollah, “revolutionary” forces in Yemen and Saudi Arabia) and its protectors (Russia, and China within certain limits).Is the war that is about to start not just a conflict between Iran and Israel? Only in part. In the Syrian situation, Israel is taking a prudent approach. Israel did not take sides, so as not to give its enemies a pretext to disguise the civil war as “anti-Zionist resistance”. In the same way, it did not react during the first Gulf War when Saddam Hussein tried to justify his “resistance” by sending his Scud missiles at Israeli towns. In the case of Iran, this decision to wait is not possible, as we will see. However, Iran is not only playing against Israel, but is also trying to establish its hegemony over the entire Islamic world and the Gulf region that is so important because it is the first in the world in oil production. If Iran has the bomb which it has been working on for twenty years and which is now almost ready, it will be able to impose its will on Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the other Arab states, and through them the whole world.Iran would no longer be attackable, like the crazy and a bit grotesque dictatorship of North Korea that can shoot at the Americans and South Koreans and can oppress its people without fear of reprisal because if it were to send one of its nuclear missiles to Seoul, millions would die. It would be the same with Iran if it had a bomb, with missiles that could reach Jerusalem, but also Rome, Riyadh, Moscow, and Karachi, on its oil wells. It would, in short be unstoppable. The difference is that North Korea has no other strategic aims besides the survival of its communist monarchy, while Iran wants to export the Islamic revolution, and build one Muslim empire dominated by the Shiite sect, destined to become a hegemonic power in Asia, Africa and Europe.
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