Sticking to today’s reality, we know that two of the three future possibilities are more or less strongly euro-skeptics, they both are not ashamed in siding with Putin, to the point of accepting an European step back in Ukraine (damaging the reliability of our continent on the world political scene). The victory of Mrs Le Pen could add one more name to the protectionist styles that seems to have started with Trump (on this the new USA president is at least ambiguous).
The importance of protectionism should not be underrated, due to the importance it had in worsening the 1929 crisis (the 2008 crisis is not yet over in Europe). The European political scene is already showing some clouds in 2017, demanding a diversification in US dollars for a Euro based savings portfolio. On some metrics the European equity market looks undervalued, the continent’s macro economic conditions are improving, our political choices (or their perception by the financial market actors) support the prudent evaluations we observe. All of the above might be the best contemporary representation of the meaning of Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s inaugural speech on March 4th 1933: “the only thing we need to fear is fear itself”. The strong concentration on pessimism we observe in Europe is a non irrelevant part of the European problem.
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