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EUROPE/ Fillon: a "trumpian" candidate for a more protectionist France

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François Fillon, candidato del centrodestra alle presidenziali Francesi  François Fillon, candidato del centrodestra alle presidenziali Francesi

François Fillon will run for the center right party at the next French presidential elections. His political program was less moderate than the one offered by his main opponent, more closely inspired to the free markets of the Reagan years.

This result seems to confirm the electors’ preference to a more explicit political program. French political scene starts today to be more transparent. In looking at the names that will emerge for the final vote we now understand that Marine Le Pen will represent the extreme right, Francois Fillon the moderate right and we still need to wait for the nomination of the left party. We already know that the approval rating for Hollande are the French history lowest level, we should accept that this will negatively impact the French left.

The selection of Francois Fillon pushed the probability of Mrs Le Pen to be the next French president down to 20% from about 30%. If we consider that the electoral preferences are moving to the extremes, that France has always been a strong and centralized state, and that the composition of the electorate is socially and demographically changing in France too, we should say that 20% probability of being elected for Marine Le Pen could be too low (she represents the strength and centralization of the State better than the French version of a neo-liberal). In any case 20% is high enough to negatively impact the financial markets.



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