SCENARIO / The Chinese Obama "sells" human rights and dumps Europe
Obama has degraded the alliance with Europe and is confirming privileged bilateral relations with Beijing. How much should we worry?
First, we must understand and this requires an historical note. In the late ‘70s, the Communist parties of China and Russia realized that they had to make their economies more efficient if they wanted to stay in power and avoid being hanged by impoverished masses. Gorbachev, in the '80s, failed because he wanted to reform the socialist economy without abandoning it. Deng Xiaoping, however, starting in 1978, replaced it, but gradually, with the market.
In the ‘90s, the Communist Party celebrated the new development by formalizing the doctrine of economic freedom dissociated from democracy, that is the model of "authoritarian capitalism": economic liberalism is the tool to achieve the goals of socialism.
This success fueled their imperial ambitions, but with an emphasis on creating an external influence to protect the internal authoritarian model: reducing the pressure to democratize and maintaining the primacy of the party, maintaining cohesive society through national pride, increasing wealth by geopolitical domination, but with a long-term strategy.
First step: create good relations with America to persuade her to give preference to Chinese exports and by that means, to multiply growth. Second: bind America in a G2 rapport to be recognized as the second world power. Third: surpass America and preside over the global multilateral table.
We are between the end of the first and the beginning of the second stage. The Pentagon office of future scenarios, in 1995, predicted the third phase in 2024. But the need for Obama to get help from China is advancing the timing. He needs Beijing to: (a) withdraw from Afghanistan without an immediate destabilization of this and, above all, Pakistan, (b) contain Iran, (c) continue buying U.S. debt and thus accelerate the recovery in time for elections in 2012.
For these purposes Obama has already succumbed to the Chinese demand to close the G8, the Euro-American body with Japan recognized as the leading Asian power, replacing it with the G20, a de-Westernized organization, bringing out the Sino-American G2. What else will he sell? Probably Obama would give away even his pants, but the U.S. political system and the American people are already reacting and limiting him. First, the imperial bureaucracy in Washington knows that China is a strategic competitor and they will not break the alliance with the Europeans completely. Second, the American people feel the moral unease of an American president going to China without denouncing (he will say something soft, prearranged) authoritarianism and the concentration camps (Laogai).
Beijing does not want an anti-Chinese reaction from the democratic world. They will work for the long term and seek to avoid incidents before they are "ready". So Obama will appear to concede very little and China will also ask for less, both trying to reassure the world. But the substance, behind closed doors, will still be a step closer to Beijing as a world power.
This is unacceptable. Since there are no democratic institutions to govern conflicts, we cannot put a nation at the center of the global market that could be destabilized by clashes at the top of the Communist Party, with serious impact on our pocketbooks. We cannot accept the competitive devaluations that will disrupt the cycle of global capital. We cannot allow authoritarian capitalism to conquer democrat capitalism.
But what can we do? Reconstruct the power of Europe, bring America to create the new G2 with us and together build a global alliance of democracies greater than China and therefore able to influence and even democratize them (see www.thegrandalliance.eu). But after Obama.
First published in Italian, November 16, 2009© CopyRight.