CENTRAL ASIA/ A new Great Game as Kyrgyzstan suffers

The violent ethnic unrest at the Kyrgyz-Uzbek border, which has killed hundreds and displaced more than a quarter of a million people over the past few days, is not simply a political crisis that is turning into a humanitarian tragedy. Instead, it represents the latest drama in the Great Game dominating Central Asia and beyond for more than two centuries.

Just as tsarist Russia and imperial Britain carved out spheres of interest in the 19th century, Moscow and Beijing are vying for geopolitical hegemony in the 21st. Paradoxically, at a time when the US and other western countries speak of a “multi-partner world”, we are seeing the rise of old eastern empires dressed in new clothes. This disproves the claim that the world will gradually converge towards a universal model of liberal market democracy.

The United Nations has proven far too weak to impose a multilateral solution. The secretary general Ban Ki-moon is liaising with the foreign minister of Kazakhstan, which currently chairs the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). They have agreed to co-ordinate a crisis response with the EU, and send special envoys to the Kyrgyz capital Bishkek.

In reality, the UN, the OSCE and the EU can do little to stop ethnic violence and bring about a peaceful settlement. None has any significant presence in the region or is capable of mobilising peace-keeping troops.

Kyrgyzstan is firmly in what Moscow considers its backyard. A resurgent Russia won’t tolerate any foreign encroachment in its “privileged sphere of influence”, to quote the Russian president Dmitry Medvedev.

The US is conspicuous by its absence. With Mr Obama’s “surge” strategy on the line in Afghanistan, the White House is desperate to hold on to its air base in Manas. The air base is a vital supply line for troops and supplies in the Afghan war.

But Russia is calling the shots, as Kyrgyzstan’s current interim government depends on the Kremlin’s recognition and support. Ironically, Washington relies on Moscow’s tacit approval to keep Manas open.

Moscow supported the pro-Russian opposition in its April coup against the deposed Kyrgyz president Kurmanbek Bakiyev. His power base is in the country’s south, including the Fergana valley and the city of Osh where some of the worst violence has taken place. This area is at the nexus of the rival ambitions of both Russia and China. The Chinese leadership fears that unrest in the Fergana valley could spread to the volatile northwestern province of Xinjiang, home to the Muslim ethnic Uighur population.

Kyrgyzstan has about a quarter of a million Uighurs, who resent what they view as oppression of their brethren across the Chinese border. Militants could use unstable countries like Kyrgyzstan as a refuge and base from which to launch an insurgency against Beijing.

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