martedì 17 marzo 2009

One of the problems with judging the meaning of a new outbreak of terrorist attacks has to do with the disproportionate relationship that can exist between the terrorist gesture and the thought behind it. The gesture is usually accompanied by a statement explaining its logic and purpose, but this is invariably of such a ritualistic character as to tell very little about the true nature of the threat. In Northern Ireland in the past week, the killing of two British soldiers by an organisation styling itself “The Real IRA” (RIRA) and a few days later the assassination of a police officer by the Continuity IRA were accompanied by such ritualistic claims of responsibility, connecting the actions to the presence of British “forces of occupation” and “collaboration” with British rule.

As their names suggest, both the RIRA and Continuity IRA are dissident republican organisations born in the dying days of the conflict more than a decade ago, allegedly as a response to the perceived sell out of republican principles in the resolution of the conflict. While both organisations may have been some elements of ideological irredentism, the truth is that they became refuges for many elements within the former republican movement who did not see themselves adapting well to peacetime. There is a sense that both organisations have become homes for small-time criminals, “career” terrorists and perhaps a sprinkling of diehard political extremists who derive their motivation from the most literal and fanatical concepts of Irish nationalist ideology.

The immediate response of the public, north and south, was “Not again”, a deep sigh of despair that, with no particular obvious provocation, the whole thing might start up again some 11 years after it was thought to have ended for good. But nobody really believed that the three murders represented a genuine reopening of the conflict. No context whatever exists for this yet.. Both communities overwhelmingly welcome the new realities in Northern Ireland and wish the peace to continue into the future.

There is no guarantee, however, that these attacks will not be fanned into the blaze of renewed conflict. The real danger is that if the two communities are again drawn into a mood of mutual hostility by a series of random and retaliatory killings, the situation might very quickly return to its former intractability. These murders could, on the other hand, turn out to be no more than aberrant events given a disproportionate importance by virtue of the quick succession in which they occurred. The security forces are currently following clear lines of enquiry in respect of both outrages and are questioning a number of individuals. If these investigations are successful, the current wave of violence might fizzle out.

Meanwhile, the Chief Constable of the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI), Sir Hugh Orde, who in effect predicted these events a short time ago, is now warning about the dangers of a loyalist backlash. Just a few days before the first attack, Sir Hugh warned that the threat from dissident republican organisations was at its most acute since the Good Friday Agreement, 11 years ago. Last week, in the wake of the attacks, he said that there was now a real risk that loyalist hardliners might seek to “level the playing field” by conducting revenge attacks. The Chief Constable has had unofficial talks with at least one former paramilitary organisation in the hope of averting a retaliatory response. “The message is loud and clear:” he said, “Don’t do it. Let us get on with our enquiries. We are following substantial leads. I have absolute confidence we will bring this to a successful conclusion.”

 Of the republican attacks, he said: “The notion that this is some concerted, coordinated campaign currently doesn’t hold up at any level”. He dismissed suggestions of any link between the two recent attacks, saying that such theories give “these disparate, disorganised but dangerous groups a credibility they simply don’t deserve”.

For the moment, this reads as a solid analysis. Although from a distance the recent attacks may seem like a re-ignition of the political difficulties that dogged northern Ireland for three decades, the truth is both more complex and more banal. Although these outrages have been accompanied by the kind of justifications that accompanied the operations of the Provisional IRA for nearly 30 years, there is no evidence of any real residual political sentiment seeking to resuscitate an initiative to remove the British presence from Ireland. The nationalistic mantras which follow on such atrocities are merely mechanistic words used ritualistically as a kneejerk self-justification by forces which, in truth, have little or no genuine political motivation. Almost invariably, the individuals involved in these dissident organisations are small-time criminals who use the rhetoric of national realisation as a cover for their smuggling or drug-dealing activities. The idea that there exists any real cohort of paramilitary activity motivated by genuine patriotism, even a misguided patriotism, is generally regarded as laughable. Undoubtedly, there remain some individuals who are steeped in this sentiment and can turn it on at will like a tap, but for the moment there is no real fear that the recent outrages represent a genuine resumption of the political conflict. Among the many relevant factors is the fact that there is close to zero political support for such actions, as evidenced by the widespread worker demonstrations in Northern Ireland in protest at the recent murders.

The underlying danger, as Sir Hugh Orde has indicated, is that a real and lethal phase of conflict might be provoked by these actions, by the simple process of a series of tit-for-tat operations which would serve to reopen the wound of the conflict and cast many of those who have become reconciled in the past decade back into their former functions and mindsets.

For the moment, the sudden outbreak of murder and mayhem is a tragic but relatively insignificant criminal phenomenon. But there is no certainty that this is how things will remain. The future of the peace in Ireland comes down, for the moment, not to politics but to policing.